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Exposed: the myth of ‘global cooling’
Instrumental temperature record of the last 15...
Image via Wikipedia
Welcome to America, where our new standard of truth is whether or not somebody said something out loud. Maybe the internet or cable television has made us more susceptible to believing whatever erroneous piece of information is spat from the lips of the latest know-it-all. This phenomenon is not limited to a particular political ideology. The left does it. The right does too. Women, men, young and old are all eager to give you an earful as to why they’re right and you’re wrong. Who needs experts when you’ve got cranky, home-grown skepticism?
Maybe that’s why I’m loving the latest global cooling myth and its swift debunking. Lately, climate change skeptics have coalesced around the notion that the earth is undergoing a long-term cooling trend rather than the opposite. I’ve read this sentiment written in the comment section here at True/Slant, heard it again and again from the commentariat class, and even seen it printed on the cover of other wise intelligent economic thinkers.
In short, these expert non-experts argue, global warming is the last thing we need to be worried about.
Well, a fun little experiment conducted by the Associated Press has now landed this cherry-picked pie smack dab in the faces of those who first dreamed it up.
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.
In fact, the statisticians saw precisely what climatologists have been telling us: that the last ten years, even with two or three years during which average temperatures fell in relation to previous ones, have been the warmest on record. Just as we have consistently witnessed over the past 100 years, some years see dips, some big rises, and others stay flat. But over time, we are continuing to see the same trend: global warming.
Does this mean that over the next ten years the earth won’t cool? No. But why is it so hard to admit what HAS actually happened? We can’t formulate a hypothesis on global cooling when it isn’t supported by the data itself. Otherwise, science itself can simply be revised by any blowhard with an agenda.
True/Slant’s Jerry Lanson was musing about American apathy over global warming the other day, citing the sharp decline in the number of people in the U.S. who don’t think climate change is a serious, or man-made problem. Perhaps, as a nation, we’ve just become addicted to our simple soundbites, rendering us ever gullible to digestible little info-bits like “global cooling.” Or maybe global warming and its implications are just too depressing to contemplate, so we look for the first possible way to negate them.
On the other hand, actually looking at temperature trends over the past 100 years (to say nothing of the past 10) is pretty simple in itself. Just follow the arrow as it heads, incontrovertibly, in an upward direction.
trueslant.com/davidknowle...bal-cooling/
Instrumental temperature record of the last 15...
Image via Wikipedia
Welcome to America, where our new standard of truth is whether or not somebody said something out loud. Maybe the internet or cable television has made us more susceptible to believing whatever erroneous piece of information is spat from the lips of the latest know-it-all. This phenomenon is not limited to a particular political ideology. The left does it. The right does too. Women, men, young and old are all eager to give you an earful as to why they’re right and you’re wrong. Who needs experts when you’ve got cranky, home-grown skepticism?
Maybe that’s why I’m loving the latest global cooling myth and its swift debunking. Lately, climate change skeptics have coalesced around the notion that the earth is undergoing a long-term cooling trend rather than the opposite. I’ve read this sentiment written in the comment section here at True/Slant, heard it again and again from the commentariat class, and even seen it printed on the cover of other wise intelligent economic thinkers.
In short, these expert non-experts argue, global warming is the last thing we need to be worried about.
Well, a fun little experiment conducted by the Associated Press has now landed this cherry-picked pie smack dab in the faces of those who first dreamed it up.
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.
In fact, the statisticians saw precisely what climatologists have been telling us: that the last ten years, even with two or three years during which average temperatures fell in relation to previous ones, have been the warmest on record. Just as we have consistently witnessed over the past 100 years, some years see dips, some big rises, and others stay flat. But over time, we are continuing to see the same trend: global warming.
Does this mean that over the next ten years the earth won’t cool? No. But why is it so hard to admit what HAS actually happened? We can’t formulate a hypothesis on global cooling when it isn’t supported by the data itself. Otherwise, science itself can simply be revised by any blowhard with an agenda.
True/Slant’s Jerry Lanson was musing about American apathy over global warming the other day, citing the sharp decline in the number of people in the U.S. who don’t think climate change is a serious, or man-made problem. Perhaps, as a nation, we’ve just become addicted to our simple soundbites, rendering us ever gullible to digestible little info-bits like “global cooling.” Or maybe global warming and its implications are just too depressing to contemplate, so we look for the first possible way to negate them.
On the other hand, actually looking at temperature trends over the past 100 years (to say nothing of the past 10) is pretty simple in itself. Just follow the arrow as it heads, incontrovertibly, in an upward direction.
trueslant.com/davidknowle...bal-cooling/
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Re: Exposed: the myth of ‘global cooling’
Tue, October 27, 2009 - 6:46 PM#1. You have a new forum now and abandoned this one, remember? Trying to avoid Dan??
#2 You have not been reading much lately. The science of climate change has been shown to be fraudulent. Tree ring data was cooked. Do some research and wake up. Then go post elsewhere. I own this page:-) -
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Re: Exposed: the myth of ‘global cooling’
Wed, October 28, 2009 - 12:49 PMbtw, say hi to all my fans over on the "turkel fan club". XOXOXOXOXO
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Re: Exposed: the myth of ‘global cooling’
Mon, November 2, 2009 - 3:26 PM>>"On the other hand, actually looking at temperature trends over the past 100 years (to say nothing of the past 10) is pretty simple in itself. Just follow the arrow as it heads, incontrovertibly, in an upward direction."<<
You might find this article interesting:
www.co2science.org/educatio...tique.php
I am personally undecided on the issue of anthropogenic forcing of climate via CO2. Here is why the data you refer to is not definitive:
There was a clear cooling event called the little ice age that ended about 100 years ago. The upward trend from that time could be viewed as a return to a "normal" interglacial temperature regime. There was a major dip in that trend in the mid-20th century that occurred despite increasing CO2. From the perspective of geologic time we are in the middle of a glacial age that has witnessed at least four major advances of the ice sheets separated by very short (10,000 year) interglacial periods. We are in an interglacial epoch that began about 10,000 years ago; simply based on what happened in past interglacial epochs, we could very well be on the precipice of a new ice age. If we look back over temperatures from the beginning of the interglacial epoch, we see that current temperatures are considerably below the "Holocence maximum" that occurred fairly early in the epoch and also below temperatures seen in the "Medieval warm period". If you recall your history, this period was warm enough for settlers to live in southern Greenland. Climate alarmists want us to believe that if we again approach temperatures seen earlier in this interglacial, that the biosphere will be severely damaged and civilization will collapse. The fact is that warmer temperatures have always meant greater biodiversity throughout earth history and periods of cold have had devastating effects on human populations, while civilizations tend to thrive in warmer times.
Since I have not been studying climatology, I don't have the data to prove it, but my guess is that anthropogenic CO2 may be having an effect on climate; perhaps extending the current interglacial epoch beyond its normal endpoint. If one actually looks at the long term trend from the Holocene maximum to now the trend is quite flat and definitely downward. Let us suppose we can reverse this trend as we seem to see in the data for the last 10 years; is this really something to be alarmed about? A lot of people are saying it is, but I am not so sure. There is still a long way to go be for we would even reach Medieval temperatures. Also, it is demonstrable that plant growth increases as CO2 content increases. Estimates of CO2 going back hundreds of millions of years indicate there was 9-10 times more CO2 in the atmosphere in the Carboniferous Period, where we find many massive deposits of coal, suggesting perhaps that plant growth during this time was extremely rapid compared to what we see today.
The simple fact is that earth's climate has always been and always will be in a state of flux. Organisms adapt to the changes and men are the most adaptable organism on the planet. All the dire predictions about disaster if our climate gets warmer, seem wildly overblown to me. A far greater problem would be a return to ice age conditions, but the most devastating effects take a while to develop and of course modern humans developed in ice age conditions, so we ought to be able to continue to thrive if they return.
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Re: Exposed: the myth of ‘global cooling’
Tue, November 3, 2009 - 8:34 AM"Since I have not been studying climatology, I don't have the data to prove it, but my guess is that anthropogenic CO2 may be having an effect on climate; perhaps extending the current interglacial epoch beyond its normal endpoint."
Not surprising that you haven't seen the data Rene. This is because "peer reviewed" articles upon which much of the case for anthropomorphic climate change has been based mysteriously left it out!?? At least until recently. And what do you know, when the data were forced into the open by a scientist demanding it, it was found to be fraudulantely obtained to force an outcome not evidenced honestly. Take a look:
www.climatechangefraud.com/behi...-ents
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