Now would be a good time to act.

topic posted Thu, December 11, 2008 - 7:12 PM by  B
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Before the prices go up again it's time to wean this country from oil and switch to alternatives as fast as possible.

www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12.../12oil.html

Global oil consumption will drop this year for the first time since 1983, as an economic downturn in the West and slower growth in China cuts fuel demand, according to the world’s main energy forecaster.

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to industrialized nations, said on Thursday that it projects worldwide demand to fall by 200,000 barrels a day, to 85.8 million barrels a day, in 2008. The new forecast is 350,000 barrels a day less than the agency’s last monthly report, which is widely read among energy experts.

Oil demand may recover somewhat next year, although at a much slower pace, as the global economy turns the corner in the second half of 2009, according to the energy agency. It sees consumption growing by 0.5 percent, or 400,000 barrels a day. That is still 260,000 barrels a day less than was expected last month.

Many other energy forecasts have painted a far bleaker picture of the oil markets for the next 12 months, and some analysts also expect demand to drop next year.

The Energy Department said earlier this week that global consumption would probably fall by 450,000 barrels a day in 2009, the first time in more than 30 years that demand will decline for two consecutive years.

As a result of the global recession, the price of oil has fallen more than 70 percent since its peak this summer. Oil fell to $40 a barrel last week, after rising as high as $147 a barrel in intraday trading in July.

On Thursday, oil futures in New York surged $4.29 to $47.81 a barrel, after the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said that his country had cut its production to 8.5 million barrels a day, down more than 1.2 million barrels a day from its August peak.

The world’s idle production capacity has risen to its highest level in six years, and now stands at nearly five million barrels a day. Tight spare capacity, which had fallen to a low of a million barrels a day, was a big factor in the price surge in recent years.

OPEC’s efforts to stabilize prices may be getting some assistance from other producers. Russia suggested on Wednesday that it would coordinate a possible production cut with the cartel, while President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia said on Thursday that the country could not rule out joining OPEC, according to local news agencies.

Other producers who have cooperated with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the past, like Norway or Mexico, have so far ruled out cutting their production.

Oil demand in the United States has been particularly hard-hit this year, especially when gasoline prices exceeded $4 a gallon nationwide over the summer.

Consumption is expected to fall by 6.3 percent this year compared with 2007, to 19.4 million barrels a day, and again by 1.4 percent in 2009, the energy agency said.

But as gasoline prices have fallen back to a nationwide average of $1.66 a gallon, there are preliminary signs that consumption may be picking up again. Last week, gasoline demand rose for the first time in 33 weeks, according to a survey of national gas sales conducted by MasterCard.
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B
offline B
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  • Dan
    Dan
    offline 8

    Re: Now would be a good time to act.

    Fri, December 12, 2008 - 8:04 AM
    The price of gas here is $1.51. Sure, it will go up eventually, but probably not until the economy begins to turn around and the stock market begins to rise. Currently, it looks like there is a greater chance it will continue to drop!

    Switch to what? What motive is there to switch to expensive alternatives when oil is cheap? Irrational fears of the demine of oil? Please....
    • Dan
      Dan
      offline 8

      Re: Now would be a good time to act.

      Fri, December 12, 2008 - 8:05 AM
      demise of oil..
      • B
        B
        offline 120

        Re: Now would be a good time to act.

        Fri, December 12, 2008 - 4:33 PM
        The motive is the fact that we export money to import oil.
        • Dan
          Dan
          offline 8

          Re: Now would be a good time to act.

          Sat, December 13, 2008 - 5:55 AM
          Take a look around, there is no money for long term investments right now.
          • B
            B
            offline 120

            Re: Now would be a good time to act.

            Sat, December 13, 2008 - 8:29 AM
            You take a look around. Long term investments a key to a future long term. There is always money if you have the will to find it and do something. There always will be. Your statement is a flippant way of keeping the status quo for no good reason but to make the oil companies richer.
            • Dan
              Dan
              offline 8

              Re: Now would be a good time to act.

              Sat, December 13, 2008 - 6:22 PM
              T. Boone Pickens recently acknowledged that his wind farm was not profitable. I am not sure what you mean by "there is always money". Perhaps you mean we can just print some more or we can raise taxes on people who are already hurting. I would love to see a bunch of nuclear plants personally, but I don't think that is going to happen either.
              • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                Mon, December 15, 2008 - 9:59 AM
                I just trying to figure out where they get 751 billion to pay banks and wall street, and since it has done nothing for the economy, why we dont take it back.

                If they can just create out of thin air 751 billion that my kids will have to pay back, why can't they come up with money to change our country to less need of forign oil.

                T. Boone pickens wants to create a wind farm, which has been proven to be a bad choice, so why doesnt america invest in solar panels on roof tops where the space is plentiful.
              • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                Mon, December 15, 2008 - 10:02 AM
                How does the national debt go from 2 tillion to 10 trillion in 8 years under a conservative, no spend, no tax republican president.

                Its not like we are talking trade deficit, this is real debt, the most in the history of America.

                we are worried about them taking an additional 751 billion on the backs of our children, but where was everyone when 8 trillion dollars was being spent?
                • Dan
                  Dan
                  offline 8

                  Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                  Mon, December 15, 2008 - 10:28 AM
                  Bush was not a conservative.
                  • This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.

                    Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                    Mon, December 15, 2008 - 12:38 PM
                    Bush was a republican and that party is all about less tax and less governement.

                    But he spent more then any president in history.
                    • Dan
                      Dan
                      offline 8

                      Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                      Mon, December 15, 2008 - 6:37 PM
                      We agree on this, so I guess we can move on?
                      • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                        Tue, December 16, 2008 - 8:59 AM
                        But wait, lets talk about how Bush and his oil buddies. They raped America and ruined our childrens future.

                        Does that make oil evil?

                        Yet, your argument still stands, there is no other solution then oil for our production, energy and transportation needs.

                        What about Global Warming, is it still a myth, regardless if its man made or mans contribution to a system already headed in that direction?

                        P.S. Its good to see the face behind the man: the oil lover.
                        • Dan
                          Dan
                          offline 8

                          Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                          Tue, December 16, 2008 - 9:07 AM
                          Moki, I didn't vote for Bush and I didn't vote for McCain. Why do you insist I fit into your narrow mindset as to where Christians stand. I am not mormon either.

                          Oil cannot be evil. It is simply a cheap source of energy which has brought uncalculable blessings to mankind. We should have a national oil discovery day annually!

                          Also, why do you insist on framing my words in ways I have never framed them? Is it because when you read you actually see, not what is on the page, but rather your own preconceived bias?

                          I am for nuclear energy and I am for oil in terms of transportation. I would be for any solution which is affordable safe and helps us gain a measure of energy independence. I do not agree with "peak oil" theorists nor do I agree with radicals who wish to abolish the internal combustion engine. This is stupid, unscientific and dangerous.

                          Global warming is a myth, 2008 will be another global cooling year. 650 scientists just presented their views on this subject to the U.N.. One day everyone will know it is a myth and I want you to remember that you heard it from me first:-)
                          • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                            Tue, December 16, 2008 - 9:20 AM
                            The Ice in greenland and in the south and north pole is not melting, right?

                            You didnt vote for either president, so you dont vote?

                            Nuclear power plants, and the waste they produce is not a problem?

                            I didnt call out your belief in a jewish rabbi God named Jesus, thats your own limited thinking. That didnt mean anything, it was empty and meaningless.

                            You are right, oil has been the blood that has produced a world full of stuff we dont need, its created more growth then we could imagine, so a few people could get rich on the backs of the people of the world.

                            Yes, thats how the mind works, preconceived bias! But if I talk to you long enough, I can understand your christian mind set, I can understand your practal point of view that oil is the only solution we have now, until something better comes along.

                            But since your so passionate about this subject, its fun to keep the disagreement going.

                            On another note, why don't you have any friends here on tribe, this is a social network, dont you want to have friends, or are your conversations just about arguments, thus no one wants to be friends with those that disagree with our common ignorance, all of us.
                            • Dan
                              Dan
                              offline 8

                              Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                              Tue, December 16, 2008 - 10:04 AM
                              "The Ice in greenland and in the south and north pole is not melting, right? "

                              You consider this scientific evidence? These phenomena are cyclical and have nothing to do with any Global Warming. This kind of "data" is useful only as a propaganda tool.

                              "You didnt vote for either president, so you dont vote?"

                              Yes, but I don't support the lessor of two evils, so I voted for a third party candidate.

                              "Nuclear power plants, and the waste they produce is not a problem?"

                              sure its a problem. But what does this have to do with anything. There are solutions to these problems and are successully implimented in such countries as France. One would think that liberals would take note since France is hardly dominated by conservative thought!

                              "I didnt call out your belief in a jewish rabbi God named Jesus, thats your own limited thinking. That didnt mean anything, it was empty and meaningless."

                              Moki, all of us have limited thinking, but I am more than willing and capable of defending my faith in the bible. This is not the tribe for it and likely you are not the person to take up this challenge.

                              "You are right, oil has been the blood that has produced a world full of stuff we dont need, its created more growth then we could imagine, so a few people could get rich on the backs of the people of the world."

                              This statement is unfounded. Oil has lifted the burden of working people all over the world. Allowed us to travel to places our parents never went. It has raised everyones standard of living. It made mass farming possible so that the entire world could be easily feed with oil based fertilizers. Notice the opening paragraph of an article authored by a person who agrees with you:

                              www.big-ideas.com.au/3/poll.htm

                              "Crude oil was formed by nature in the past over many million years. It is one of the most precious and important substances mankind is blessed with."

                              Making silly socialistic statements just makes you look foolish.

                              "Yes, thats how the mind works, preconceived bias! But if I talk to you long enough, I can understand your christian mind set, I can understand your practal point of view that oil is the only solution we have now, until something better comes along."

                              It is the best thing we have going for what it does. Yet the same folks who promote the global warming myths promote the peak oil myths as well. It is not a scientific truth, it is a political philosophy. These folk irrationally hate people and want them to die off to some imagined sustainable population size.

                              "On another note, why don't you have any friends here on tribe, this is a social network, dont you want to have friends, or are your conversations just about arguments, thus no one wants to be friends with those that disagree with our common ignorance, all of us."

                              I guess having a list of virtual friends isn't very meaningful to me. There are people on Tribe I have enjoyed conversing with, some with whom I disagree. I enjoy debate on a variety of issues that are important to me. Casual discussions don't interest me very much.
                              • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                Tue, December 16, 2008 - 10:38 AM
                                I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

                                I think following a dead jewish rabbi who had no intention of creating a seperate religion is wrong, at most Jesus only wanted to reform the jewish faith. But its really all about power, and as countries learned with the Roman Catholic Church, its better to create your own religion then be subject to another countries dogma. But this is not a religious tribe, as you say.

                                I think we are experiencing global weather change, that means that the weather conditions are getting worse and more exstreme. The melting ice caps, regardless of what caused them to melt, is not reversing itself, and will create huge problems for humanity.

                                I think that its plausable to say that oil has helped people out of poverty, but at what cost, and for how long? The real problem I think is that we may have given ourselves a short term benefit, to lose life for humans on earth in the long term. There is no way that we will sustain these levels for this many humans forever.

                                I think there is no practal solution for nuclear waste, just like you point out there is no practal solution to make our country work without oil, that the oil running out is an illusion, and we can continue to use as much as we want without any costs.

                                We will never agree, but you will always be a disagreement type.
                                • Dan
                                  Dan
                                  offline 8

                                  Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                  Tue, December 16, 2008 - 12:48 PM
                                  "I think following a dead jewish rabbi who had no intention of creating a seperate religion is wrong, at most Jesus only wanted to reform the jewish faith. But its really all about power, and as countries learned with the Roman Catholic Church, its better to create your own religion then be subject to another countries dogma. But this is not a religious tribe, as you say."

                                  Correct. Try this tribe: tribes.tribe.net/debateseekers

                                  "I think we are experiencing global weather change, that means that the weather conditions are getting worse and more exstreme. The melting ice caps, regardless of what caused them to melt, is not reversing itself, and will create huge problems for humanity."

                                  yes, we are experiencing global weather change. It is snowing out today, yesterday it wasn't. Again, wrong tribe for this debate.

                                  "I think that its plausable to say that oil has helped people out of poverty, but at what cost, and for how long? The real problem I think is that we may have given ourselves a short term benefit, to lose life for humans on earth in the long term. There is no way that we will sustain these levels for this many humans forever."

                                  We could say the same thing about all discoveries. The wheel was a great discovery which has helped people, but at what cost and for how long? Eventually mass producing wheels will put a toll on the economy and we will cut down two many trees! What then, we find ways to fashions steel into wheels, but at what cost and for how long? Steel mills pollute and steel is a limited resource! Then we invent rubber tires also, but at what cost and for how long? Rubber trees are limited and in short supply. Thank God for the invention of synthetic rubber....

                                  "I think there is no practal solution for nuclear waste, just like you point out there is no practal solution to make our country work without oil, that the oil running out is an illusion, and we can continue to use as much as we want without any costs."

                                  Yes there is. Nuclear waste can be recycled and is being in France. We discussed in previous threads. Nuclear power is the cleanest power and the safest on earth. It is insanity to ignore it.

                                  "We will never agree, but you will always be a disagreement type."

                                  When two disagree it is illogical to claim that the other is disagreeable for disagreeing.
                                  • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                    Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:16 PM
                                    Dan,

                                    We can't recycle all our nuclear waste, we might be able to on a limited scale use some of it.

                                    The nuclear waste that is built up from all the plants and nuclear weapons over the past 50 years can not all be recycled. If it could, they would have done it by now, its really nasty stuff.

                                    By your argument, at what point will using oil be a problem, since China and India are now using it much more? Have you seen the bloud of pollution over Asia now days? Would it help us if we didnt need oil from other countries, our economy?

                                    While the only solution we have are very costly, you make a good point in arguing for the use of oil because our economy needs it, but the solutions get cheaper as we move away from oil.

                                    The bottom line is that we will still use oil, but we believe that the use of too much of it is not good, so we want other solutions used till those solutions can be cost effective and allow our dependence on oil to be reduced at least to the point where we only use our own oil.
                                    • Dan
                                      Dan
                                      offline 8

                                      Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                      Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:51 PM
                                      Here is a good non technical article about nuclear fuel recycling.
                                      www.foxnews.com/story/0,29...688,00.html

                                      Anyone who seriously feels that CO2 is poisoning our planet needs to include nuclear energy in their agenda. There is no way to achieve energy independence to any serious degree without it.

                                      Yes, communist countries have always been worse than capitalists at keeping the environment clean. No surprise there.

                                      "The bottom line is that we will still use oil, but we believe that the use of too much of it is not good, so we want other solutions used till those solutions can be cost effective and allow our dependence on oil to be reduced at least to the point where we only use our own oil."

                                      the problem comes in when you get governments to subsidize things which could never succeed on there own. Ethanol is a prime example. If you are serious about starving people in _________, then you do not want ethanol. I believe that as oil begins to decline naturally (if it ever does), then other energy sources will come on line.
                              • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                Tue, December 16, 2008 - 10:47 AM
                                If you say I said something in the last post that isnt there, you make yourself look foolish.

                                "Crude oil was formed by nature in the past over many million years. It is one of the most precious and important substances mankind is blessed with."
                                • B
                                  B
                                  offline 120

                                  Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                  Tue, December 16, 2008 - 12:11 PM
                                  <uncalculable blessings to mankind>

                                  Maybe to a few but the vast majority of this planet lives in abject poverty. i don't see the 'blessings' being spread. Or did you mean literal blessings and the wealth is just for the few?
                                  • Dan
                                    Dan
                                    offline 8

                                    Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                    Tue, December 16, 2008 - 12:35 PM
                                    B, your logic does not follow. It simply reveals your bias. Water and sunshine are blessings to mankind but "abject poverty" still exists. You assume that blessings mean the end of poverty, and they don't. If we stop using oil today and begin going with solar or wind, "abject poverty" will still exist tomorrow. Why, because they are not connected to one another directly. Poverty can be reduced, but never eliminated.
                                    • B
                                      B
                                      offline 120

                                      Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                      Tue, December 16, 2008 - 12:49 PM
                                      Water and sunshine are free. Do you want to equate something that people pay for to something people get for free. Seems you just like to argue no matter how silly your argument is.
                                      • Dan
                                        Dan
                                        offline 8

                                        Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                        Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:12 PM
                                        if water is free, why am I paying for it? Perhaps if I want to haul it up from the creek and boil it it would be free to me, but like most people here in the U.S., I buy my water (actually, I pump it from a well, but am using electricity to pump it).

                                        The point I made is valid, even if you reject the analogy offered. There are many blessings to mankind, yet wealth is not equally dispersed. If I understand your position, you are an anticapitalist. A socialist who believes in wealth redistribution. This is the only reason I can think of for your statement.
                                        • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                          Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:19 PM
                                          So you think given our current global economic crisis, that capitalizm without checks and balances is a good thing?

                                          To ask for anything else, makes us AntiCapitalist?

                                          Dam right I want wealth redistribution, trickle down economics is why you and I are poor and have nothing better to do then type onto a dead website that may soon go out of business.
                                          • Dan
                                            Dan
                                            offline 8

                                            Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                            Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:32 PM
                                            We do not have pure capitalism. Nor was our crises caused by capitalism. We have a mixture of capitalism and socialism. I am for capitalism as the best economy the world has ever known. Clearly even the communists know that marxism is a failure also.
                                        • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                          Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:23 PM
                                          Dirty water is free, the plastic that will sit on the planet for millions of years isnt.

                                          Where do you live that you pump water from a well, are you one of those back woods gun loving christian fundamentalist?

                                          Dan, P.S. I dont mean anything by what I am saying, please dont take it personal, I am just have fun discussing an issue with someone who I think is very closed minded.
                                          • Dan
                                            Dan
                                            offline 8

                                            Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                            Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:27 PM
                                            yes, I cling to my guns and religion:-)
                                            • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                              Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:40 PM
                                              :) Cling on brother, its the people who say there is no problem, that will never listen to the possibility out side of their current mind set, and thus keep us forever the same.

                                              Maybe, we could try something else?

                                              What could you say, to us bleeding heart liberals that we could agree on?

                                              Is there a benefit on reducing our oil demand?

                                              If we were right about peak oil theory, would you agree it presents a problem that we need to be ready for?

                                              What benefits would there be, if we were able to not use oil from other countries?

                                              What problems will we see if third world countries begin to use oil like America?
                                              • Dan
                                                Dan
                                                offline 8

                                                Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                                Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:56 PM
                                                "What could you say, to us bleeding heart liberals that we could agree on? "

                                                Let's agree to pursue nuclear energy. It is clean and abundant.

                                                "Is there a benefit on reducing our oil demand?"

                                                Cheaper prices. I want to run my boat and jet ski more next summer.

                                                "If we were right about peak oil theory, would you agree it presents a problem that we need to be ready for?"

                                                no, because not proof exists of any steep decline after reaching the peak. It will be gradual. Prices will rise and other energy sources will become economically feasible and realistic.

                                                "What benefits would there be, if we were able to not use oil from other countries?"

                                                Many, let's agree to more off shore and on shore drilling also.

                                                "What problems will we see if third world countries begin to use oil like America?"

                                                more demand, higher prices. I am paying $1.50/gallon, what are you paying?
                                    • Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                      Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:05 PM
                                      www.alternet.org/story/109...e_it_back/

                                      The Rich Are Hogging Our Common Inheritance -- We Must Take It Back

                                      By Gar Alperovitz and Lew Daly, The New Press. Posted December 8, 2008.

                                      America's wealth is mainly a gift of our common past -- so how is it possible to justify our stunning level of economic inequality?

                                      Editor's Note: The following is an excerpt from "Unjust Deserts: Howt he Rich Are Taking Our Common Inheritance and Why We Should Take It Back" by Gar Alperovitz and Lew Daly, published by the New Press, 2008.

                                      Technological progress ... has provided society with what economists call a "free lunch," that is, an increase in output that is not commensurate with the increase in effort and cost necessary to bring it about. -- Joel Mokyr, Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and
                                      Economic Progress (1990)

                                      Warren Buffett, one of the wealthiest men in the nation, is worth over $60 billion. Does he "deserve" all this money? Why? Did he work somuch harder than everyone else? Did he create something so extraordinary that no one else could have created? Ask Buffett himself
                                      and he will tell you that personally he thinks that "society is responsible for a very significant percentage of what I've earned."

                                      But if this is true, doesn't society deserve a very significant share of what he has received?

                                      Buffett may not know it, but he has put his finger on one of the most explosive issues developing just beneath the surface of public awareness. In recent decades researchers working in a broad range of economic, technological, and other fields have clarified much more precisely than in the past the many ways "society" contributes to the creation of "wealth" -- and, accordingly, how relatively little any one individual can be said to have earned and "deserved." Their research, in turn, raises profound moral -- and ultimately political -- questions that are becoming increasingly difficult to avoid. At the heart of this revolution in understanding is a fundamental reconsideration of the extraordinary role of knowledge in economic growth -- and of how ever-increasing knowledge, accumulating across the generations, is central to the creation of all wealth.

                                      The distribution of income and wealth in the United States is more unequal today than at any time since the 1920s. The following study shares with Buffett a fundamental skepticism toward the belief that the nation's extraordinary inequalities are simply a natural outgrowth of differences in individual effort, skills, and intelligence. "We didn't rely on somebody else to build what we built," banking titan Sanford Weill tells us in a New York Times front-page story on the "New Gilded Age." "I think there are people," insists another
                                      executive, "who because of their uniqueness warrant whatever the market will bear."

                                      The new research findings suggest that such views are profoundly wrong -- but for reasons that go well beyond Buffett's general view and, indeed, beyond the understandings that until recently have been common among specialists concerned with these matters. Often in history something dramatic is brewing in the quiet work of scholars -- something the public doesn't know about or understand until much, much
                                      later. Einstein's famous E = mc equation meant absolutely nothing to most people when it was first published in 1905 -- but it hit the world literally as a bombshell when atomic weapons exploded in 1945. The sophisticated mathematics Claude Shannon worked out in the 1940s laid theoretical groundwork for the digital communication that today
                                      ramifies into every corner of domestic and global life. The structure of DNA was deciphered by scientists in 1953, but the public is only now beginning to realize just how radically genetic engineering may revolutionize medicine, food production, and many other important
                                      fields.

                                      "Unjust Deserts" suggests that something at least as portentous as these extraordinary developments is silently emerging among scholars studying the sources of wealth, and that once the implications are fully grasped, it too is likely to have dramatic implications -- in
                                      this case for the distribution of income, wealth, and power throughout society. It suggests, moreover, that this new understanding and the steady evolution of the knowledge economy, combined with growing social and economic pain and set against a backdrop of ever-worsening inequality, are likely to contribute to potentially massive political
                                      change as the twenty-first century unfolds. Consider the following truth: a person working today the same number of hours as a similar person in 1800 -- and working just as hard (and no harder) -- can obviously produce many, many times the economic output. Recent
                                      estimates suggest that national output per capita has increased more than twenty fold since 1800. Output per hour worked has increased an estimated fifteenfold since 1870 alone.

                                      Consider further that the modern person on average is likely to work with no greater commitment, risk, or intelligence than his counterpart from the past.

                                      What is the primary cause of such vast gains if individuals do not really "improve"? The answer is obviously more productivity -- more output from the same level of input. And self-evidently what this means is that we are more productive as a society. But how does a
                                      society become more productive if individual effort and intelligence remain relatively constant? Clearly, it is largely because on the whole the scientific, technical, and cultural knowledge available to us, and the efficiency of our means of storing and retrieving this
                                      knowledge, have grown at a scale and pace that far outstrip any other factor in the nation's economic achievement. "The central phenomenon of the modern age," economic historian Joel Mokyr observes, is quite simply "that as an aggregate we know more."

                                      A half century ago, in 1957, the future Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Solow calculated that nearly 90 percent of productivity growth in the first half of the twentieth century (from 1909 to 1949) could only be attributed to "technical change in the broadest sense."

                                      The supply of labor and capital -- what workers and employers contribute -- appeared almost incidental to this massive technological "residual." Subsequent research inspired by Solow has continued to put a spotlight on "advances in knowledge" as the main source of growth. Another highly respected economist, William Baumol, argues that "nearly 90 percent ... of current GDP was contributed by innovation carried out since 1870." Baumol judges that his estimate, in fact, understates the cumulative influence of past advances: even "the steam engine, the railroad, and many other inventions of an earlier era still add to today's GDP."

                                      Looked at another way, if today's high earners are typically highly educated, this is clearly not primarily because they are more intelligent or work harder, and it is not mainly because they were lucky in the "birth lottery," as some argue. Above all, they are highly educated because there is more knowledge for them to obtain and more opportunity to do so. "A college-educated engineer working today and one working 100 years ago have the same human capital," Stanford economist Paul Romer observes. But the engineer working today is far, far more productive. The reason, again, is self-evident: "He or she can take advantage of all the additional knowledge accumulated as design problems were solved during the last 100 years."

                                      Today a society's "stock of knowledge" and its "technological state" are the subject of intense discussion by scholars and policy makers. An obvious truth that emerges from their work is also clear and lies at the foundation of the following study: All of this knowledge -- the overwhelming source of all modern wealth -- comes to us today through
                                      no effort of our own. It is the generous and unearned gift of the past. In the words of Mokyr, it is a "free lunch."

                                      An obvious question arises from these facts: if most of what we have today is attributable to advances we inherit in common -- what another economic historian, Nathan Rosenberg, has termed a "huge overhang of technological inheritance" -- why, specifically, should this gift of our collective history not more generously and broadly benefit all members of society? Once the modern understandings are fully grasped, today's distributive realities become much harder to ignore: the top 1 percent of U.S. households now receives more income than the bottom 120 million Amercans combined.

                                      The richest 1 percent of households owns nearly half of all individually owned investment assets (stocks and mutual funds, financial securities, business equity, trusts, non-home real estate). The bottom 90 percent of the population owns less than 15 percent; the
                                      bottom half of the population -- 150 million Americans -- own less than 1 percent.

                                      If America's vast wealth is mainly a gift of our common past, how, specifically, can such disparities be justified? Although a great deal of research has been done on knowledge and economic growth -- and although one can find related moral reflections scattered throughout the work of many writers -- very few have dealt directly with the equity issues posed by our scientific and technological knowledge inheritance. We seek to remedy this large-order gap in public understanding. We hope thereby also to contribute to shaping new policies appropriate to the era of the knowledge economy.
                                      • Dan
                                        Dan
                                        offline 8

                                        Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                        Tue, December 16, 2008 - 1:24 PM
                                        "The Rich Are Hogging Our Common Inheritance -- We Must Take It Back"

                                        This is all so much nonsense. The article claims that advances in our standard of living can be attributed largely to technological advances. True, but how does this lead to the argument that people who have gathered wealth should have it taken away from them forcibly? It doesn't. I am not rich, but I make a good living. I do not want another persons money or wealth, nor should anyone want my own. Taking what belongs to others is stealing, no matter how you cloak the terms. Giving to others is charity, a very good thing. Being wealthy does not make a person happy or good. Being poor does not make a person unhappy or bad, nor does it entitle them to that which is anothers. We all know people who for some reason or another do not achieve much wealth in life. Sometimes it is because they really don't care that much about these things. Other times it is due to a poor work ethic, or drug and alcohol abuse, divorce etc..

                                        No matter how wealthy you become you cannot give yourself the entire credit for your success. Some people just seem to be in the right place at the right time. As a Christian, I thank God for the success which I have had, who has blessed me with what talent I do possess and the favorable circumstances for growing my business.
                                        • B
                                          B
                                          offline 120

                                          Re: Now would be a good time to act.

                                          Tue, December 16, 2008 - 5:54 PM
                                          <Yes, communist countries have always been worse than capitalists at keeping the environment clean. No surprise there. >

                                          This is neither a true statement nor one that can easily be defended.

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