"First, there is no evidence the Saudi's are holding back production."

www.energybulletin.net/41557.html

"One reason for the current price shock is that Saudi Arabia1 scaled-back crude production by 1 million barrels per day (b/d) between September, 2005 and February, 2007 to 8.6 million b/d. Only since September, 2007 has the Kingdom started to increase production, which currently sits at 9.2 million b/d in February, 2008 according to Mr. Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister. The OPEC basket price was $99.16 on March 7th. The longer-term basket price trend is shown in the graph (left) which shows a rise of about 360% since 2002."

"Second, higher prices for oil rather than eliminate/reduce competition in non-OPEC nations does the opposite."

Actually, both can cause a similar effect. One decreases the incentive, one decreases supply of easy oil in non OPEC nations.

"The Saudis and OPEC as a whole are likely to wait for the peak and decline of non-OPEC oil production, which is close upon us, before making any large production increases. Once the non-OPEC bloc is exhausted, the most likely scenario has OPEC adding enough oil to the world's supply to maintain the current plateau (≅ 74 million b/d) give or take ½-a-million barrels per day for some number of years as crude oil production outside the cartel declines. (Again, we are ignoring natural gas liquids here.) This is essentially the position of Dr. al-Husseini. This view is also known as "peak oil."

"I think there is a great deal of uncertainty about the timing of the world oil peak"

I agree, and for good reasons, there is way too much conjecture involved in these predictions. Many of your folk have suggested the world peak has already occurred in 2005, 2006 etc.. Truth is, they have no idea. A peak in easy oil will likely be followed by many decades of new "easy oil" as hitherto "expensive" oil becomes cheaper do to technology and increased incentive to go after it.

"but the experience of the oil peak in our country which is far behind us ought to make it clear to you, that it will occur. The only question is exactly when. The trend in declining discoveries which I have already shown you, certainly suggests that that time is not far off."

Your Malthusian doom and gloom aside, I do not fear this artifiical "peak" in the least, even if it is real. It will be followed by a new "peak" of less easy oil which will last for decades more at least. Should it be necessary, it will be followed by natural transitions into other energy sources over time. No world wide exponential crash will occur as this transition occurs, just like none occurred in the past transitions. However my money is betting that the oil age has just begun and no where near peaking any time soon.